Recently, it looks like home loan rates are starting to trend back upward. So what is the main driving force behind why interest rates go up or down? Although there are a slew of different factors that affect interest rates, the movement of the 10?year Treasury bond yield is said to be the best indicator to determine whether mortgage rates will rise or fall. Though most mortgages are packaged as 30?year products, the average mortgage is paid off or refinanced within 10 years, so the 10?year bond is a great bellwether to measure interest rate change. Typically, when bond rates (also known as the bond yield) go up, interest rates go up as well. And vice versa. Don’t confuse this with bond prices, which have an inverse relationship with interest rates. So a good way to predict which way mortgage rates are headed is to look at the 10?year bond yield. You can find it on finance websites alongside other stock tickers, or in the newspaper. If it’s moving higher, mortgage rates probably are too. If it’s dropping, mortgage rates may be improving as well.